- Bitcoin price is pointing to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June retracement at $46,849 after the August 9 close with a rally outside the day.
- Ethereum price is breaking out of a critical resistance range and is now targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June retracement at $3,358.
- XRP price is discovering support at previous resistance, pushing the altcoin towards the primary price target of $1.00.
Ethereum and XRP price opens up from resistance levels, turning it into support and pursuing aggressively higher prices. In contrast, bitcoin price reached a new high with a daily close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $44,985.
Cryptocurrency investors now need to consider that the three major cryptocurrencies show a high probability of a corrective process, both in time and price. That said, the midrange is still bullish as both clear technical inflection points with relative ease.
The chase continues, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reaching notable levels
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index published by Bybt.com soared above 70, which puts the index’s reading in the higher percentage (Greed), goes back to the beginning of 2018 and indicates that a temporary top is likely soon.
The indicator focuses on Bitcoin and takes into account five factors: volatility, market momentum/volume, social media, surveys, dominance, and trends. The goal is to get a real-time view of the behavior of the cryptocurrency market in relation to the emotional reactions to the price. For example, extreme fear can indicate a buying opportunity, while excessive greed anticipates the market due to a correction.
Cryptography of Fear and Greed – Bybt.com
It is necessary to understand that the indicator is not a timing tool but a measure of sentiment for Bitcoin and, as a consequence, the broader cryptocurrency complex.
However, Bitcoin’s dynamic decoupling from relevant resistance levels along with the expanding momentum of altcoins suggests that the market may be a bit frothy.
Bitcoin Price Reverses Leadership, But Could Pull Back
Bitcoin price is now up nearly 57% over the past 22 days, marking one of the best 22-day returns since 2018 and putting the leading cryptocurrency above the strategically important 200-day simple moving average at $45,120. It’s an impressive return after BTC posted a bullish week outside on the bar charts from the 50-week simple moving average in late June.
In the short term, Bitcoin price is facing overbought conditions based on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and increased bullish sentiment identified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Indicator. Moreover, BTC needs to fight the technical resistance offered by the 50% retracement of the April-June retracement at $46,849 and the April 25 low at $47,044.
Adding to the potential for a Bitcoin pullback is the divergence of the bearish momentum emerging on the intraday charts as the RSI did not confirm the recent Bitcoin price rally.
9 hour chart BTC / USD
The depth of the BTC corrective operation should be limited to the previous trifecta of resistance between $41,322-$43,106 and reinforced by the 38.2% retracement of the April-June retracement. The overall pullback will be near 12% of the current price.
However, if Bitcoin price fails to locate support in the range defined above, BTC is at risk of a severe correction that could reach the confluence of the June 29 high at $36,675 with the 50-day simple moving average at 38,220 $, which is a 20% decrease from the current price.
BTC/USD daily chart
Bitcoin price may choose to extend the rally, ruling out resistance. If this is the case, new resistance layers remain at the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels at $51.109 and $57,173 respectively.
The price of Bitcoin has reached an inflection point, but the momentum of Bitcoin has revived the altcoin market, increasing investors’ appetite for risk and expanding market participation.
Here, FXStreet analysts are assessing the next direction Bitcoin could head as it sits on stable support with no resistance ahead.
Ethereum price rewrites the definition of relentless
Ethereum’s price surge of 82.68% over the last 22 sessions has begun to reach the levels recorded earlier this year and match the 2018-2020 numbers, indicating an overbought state.
It is also remarkable that Ethereum price has only closed in 3 negative sessions over the last 22 days, including one that closed in a doji candlestick pattern and a loss of only -0.64%. The rigors of the rally did not provide potential ETH investors with many opportunities to enter the market.
However, the continuation of the uptrend may soon be thwarted by the mixed bearish momentum on the intraday charts, alerting ETH investors to take a stance for a period of weakness.
ETH/USD 9 hour chart
The short-term upside potential could be limited to the 61.8% retracement of the May-June retracement at $3,358, which coincides closely with the May 19 crash peak at $3,444.
ETH/USD daily chart
The ETH pullback will be well supported by the previous resistance between $2,913 and the 50% retracement level at $3,042, which is an 11% drop from the current Ethereum price.
The instability in the range creates a challenge for the Ethereum price, with support not seen until the June 15 high at $2,640 and then the July 7 high at $2,411. It would be a massive setback for ETH but an unlikely scenario.
Regardless of the extreme bearish scenario, Ethereum price showed the corresponding impulse for a real cycle low and the basis for new ETH highs going forward.
Here, FXStreet analysts assess which direction ETH might head next as it faces no opposition towards $4,400.
XRP price confirms new bull market with double digit gains
The 76.80% advance from July 21 pushed the daily RSI to the highest reading since the April high. However, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, the price of XRP does not show a bearish momentum divergence on the intraday charts, which means that the Ripple rally is getting stronger rather than weaker, despite the exceptional gains already recorded.
A 10% advance today is the type of confirmation that accompanies a sustained breakout from a critical resistance level, such as the August 7th XRP price break above the 200-day simple moving average.
The acceleration of the rally took XRP towards the measured price move of the double bottom pattern at $0.953 and within another strong day of Ripple’s second profit target of $1.00 or the third target of $1.06, generating 30% from Aug 7. close.
The $1.00-$1.06 range will be tough to beat, but if XRP price succeeds, Ripple will quickly target the 50% retracement of the April-June retracement at $1.23.
XRP/USD daily chart
The XRP price rally is a legitimate end to the correction and the start of much higher prices from a technical perspective. However, it is essential not to overlook the ongoing legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission. If Ripple suffers a temporary defeat in action, this could negatively affect the price of XRP.
The news-driven reversal should hit significant support at the 200-day SMA at $0.802 and the neckline of the multi-year inverse head and shoulders pattern around $0.770.
Relentless, impulsive and persuasive are three words to describe the rally of the three major cryptocurrencies since July 21. Excited because the gains associated with progress have reached convincing levels in a short time. Convincing because every cryptocurrency has rejected the formidable resistance previously considered with relative ease. Overall, the rally moved into progress with long-term bullish implications.
Here, FXStreet analysts are assessing which direction Ripple could head next as it looks set to break.