- Bitcoin price is identifying healthy support at the 12-month simple moving average (SMA) before resuming the current advance.
- Ethereum price is respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for three consecutive months before launching a new cyclical bull market.
- XRP price failed to find support at the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern but eventually bottomed at the 78.6% retracement.
The price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have been participating in various strategic support and resistance levels since the March 2020 low. Each is forming a unique price structure that displays bullish results for the major cryptocurrencies in the coming months.
Bitcoin price maintains remarkable progress in the period of turmoil
Bitcoin price surged more than 900% from March 2020 close to April high, showing only three negative months, June 2020 and September 2020. In April, the advance ended with a Doji candlestick pattern on the monthly chart after Bitcoin briefly surpassed the 361.8% Fibonacci Extension. for the 2017-2020 correction.
The doji candle marked a point of exhaustion and indecision as Bitcoin price tested a tactically important resistance level at the 361.8% extension. The result was the biggest monthly drop since November 2018, highlighted by the crash on May 19.
The May low almost hit the 12-month SMA to bounce, but bitcoin price activated SMA support in June and July. Moreover, BTC tested the ascending trend line from the March 2020 low and 61.8% retracement of the 2020-2021 advance. The result was an 18% increase in July that continued into August while respecting the direction of the uptrend line.
As long as the trend line and the 12-month SMA are not broken based on the monthly close, the secular advance from the March 2020 low will remain alive, sending Bitcoin above the 361.8% extension and all-time high at $64,899.
BTC/USD monthly chart
Failure to maintain the 2020 upward trend line and the 12-month SMA on a monthly basis will shift BTC focus to the support given from the 61.8% retracement at $27,715 and then the 2017 high at $19,891.
Here, FXStreet analysts are assessing which direction Bitcoin could head next as it appears to be ready for a correction.
Ethereum prints an ominous pattern
Ethereum price has surged more than 3100% from March 2020 near the May 2021 high, posting only three negative months, including a long-legged doji candle on the monthly chart. Before the close with a doji candle, ETH broke the 261.8% Fibonacci extension resistance of the 2018 retracement at $3,587 and came within the 10% of the 361.8% extension at $4,926.
A long-legged doji candlestick pattern often points to a certain rally high as indecision and uncertainty curtail bullish momentum. The pattern gains more importance after an extended advance and on a longer time frame, such as the monthly chart. In this case, the downside shift was confirmed with the highest negative month volume since 2016.
Ethereum price tested the 61.8% retracement at $1,730 in May. It successfully retested the critical Fibonacci level in June and July before jumping higher in late July and August, keeping the secular progress in effect. ETH never touched the 12-month SMA or the 2020 ascending trend line during the correction.
Respecting the various support levels, the Ethereum price has set the smart contract token to get ETH prices higher, including a new all-time high.
ETH / USD . monthly chart
In order to negate the bullish narrative, Ethereum price will need to defeat the confluence of the ascending trendline with the 61.8% retracement at $1,730 and the 12-month simple moving average at $1,678 on a monthly basis. Also note that the 2018 high of $1,419 will be a reliable support for ETH.
Here, FXStreet analysts assess which direction ETH might head next as it tests the crucial resistance level.
XRP Price Shakes SEC With Massive Breakout
XRP’s price journey has been tough, including the announcement of the SEC status in late 2020 that sent Ripple down 67% in December, posting the biggest monthly drop since 2017.
XRP price reacted strongly in January with a high of 125.88%, which saw the symbol for international settlements return above the rising 12-month simple moving average with the formation of the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that started in 2018.
Ripple decisively breached the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in April with a gain of 180.34% and above the $1.45 (86%) target price of the XRP move pattern before stopping at the 50% retracement of the 2018-2020 retracement at $1.70.
Resistance was at the final 50% retracement, which led to consecutive months of +-30% losses, a close below the neckline at $0.76, a break of the 12-month simple moving average and a 78.60% retracement test of the 2020-2021 advance at $0.50. However, XRP price never recorded a monthly close below the moving average and July closed with an inside month on the bar charts.
Let’s say the price of XRP closed in August above the neckline at $0.76. In this case, the cross-border remittance symbol will be well positioned to break the resistance at the 50% retracement and other Fibonacci levels on the way to an all-time high of $3.30, which was printed in January 2018.
XRP/USD monthly chart
XRP price close below the neckline and 12-month SMA at $0.67 would confirm the April high at $1.96 as the end of the advance, forcing a long-term bearish view for Ripple.
There is a tendency for market operators to focus on daily fluctuations, without looking at the bigger picture. As the monthly charts above show, there is a rhythm of price action based on long-term resistance and support levels, chart patterns and Fibonacci levels.
Here, FXStreet analysts are assessing which direction Ripple could head next as it looks set to pull back before higher rallies.